Three special elections in Virginia offer a preview of voting patterns in the suburbs, crucial for the upcoming 2025 gubernatorial races and the 2026 midterm elections. These elections arose from a series of political shifts, including a federal election upset in Loudoun County and the resignation of two state lawmakers seeking higher office. Loudoun County, situated between West Virginia and Washington, D.C., has increasingly leaned Democrat, fueled by an influx of residents from the nation's capital. This area has also been at the center of national debates surrounding transgender policies and school safety.
Furthermore, the defeat of former U.S. Representative Bob Good (R-Va.) in Lynchburg triggered another special election. With Democrats holding a slim one-vote majority in the Virginia state Senate under Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, these elections carry significant weight.
While Democrats are anticipated to perform well in the Loudoun County races, political analysts are closely observing Republican performance in these typically low-turnout elections. This is seen as an indicator of potential outcomes after Governor Youngkin's term concludes. Both Virginia and New Jersey, states where Trump and the GOP exceeded expectations in past elections but ultimately lost, hold off-year gubernatorial elections, making them key states to watch in 2024.
Governor Youngkin's performance in traditionally Democratic areas like Loudoun County, while not resulting in outright victories, drew enough votes away from his opponent in 2021 to secure a significant upset. Republicans are hoping for a similar outcome this year. Winning both the Loudoun County and Southside Senate seats would give Republicans control of the state Senate. A Republican victory in the delegate seat would result in a tie in the lower chamber, ending Democratic sole control. A complete Republican sweep would grant the party complete control in Richmond, a scenario not seen since the George W. Bush presidency.
Governor Youngkin expressed optimism about Republican prospects in the upcoming elections, emphasizing the potential of the two Loudoun County candidates to build upon what he considers Virginia’s success story. He highlighted their focus on tax relief, addressing car tax concerns, enhancing public safety, and prioritizing parental rights in education.
The open House of Delegates seat, vacated by Delegate Kannan Srinivasan (D-Brambleton) who is running for Congress, is being contested by Republican Ram Venkatachalam, an Indian immigrant and IT professional, and Democrat Suhas Subramanyam. Venkatachalam’s campaign emphasizes lowering taxes and improving public safety. Srinivasan, appointed to the state Medicaid board by former Governor Ralph Northam, is running against Republican Tumay Harding, a teacher and small business owner, for the open state Senate seat.
In Southside Virginia, the heavily Republican state Senate district previously held by now-Congressman-elect John McGuire is being contested by Republican Luther Cifers and Democrat Jack Trammell. Cifers, a business owner, is considered the frontrunner in this largely rural district. Trammell, a professor, is actively campaigning and engaging with voters throughout the district.
