Following the capture of Hama by Turkish-backed rebels, the Syrian conflict has entered a new phase, raising concerns across the Middle East. Turkish President Erdogan expressed hope for continued rebel advances, even suggesting Damascus as a potential target. His comments, however, also acknowledged the presence of terrorist groups within the rebel forces, a concern echoed by the U.S. designation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a terrorist organization. This presents a complex challenge for the U.S., given Turkey's NATO membership and its support for groups like Hamas.
HTS and its allies are now reportedly close to Homs, home to Syria's largest military academy. The White House has called for de-escalation and protection of civilians, while the State Department urged U.S. citizens to leave Syria. The rapid rebel advance has prompted Israel to reinforce its forces on the Golan Heights, and Jordan to close its border crossing with Syria.
Experts suggest that the rebel gains have caught the Assad regime, Russia, and Iran off guard. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of various regional powers, including Turkey and Iran, each pursuing its own interests. Turkey's support for the rebels could be interpreted as a message to Iran to avoid escalating the conflict. The question now is who, if anyone, will intervene to support Assad, given Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine.
The upcoming battle for Homs is expected to be a major confrontation between HTS and its allies against Iranian-backed forces and Hezbollah. Homs is strategically important as a transportation hub for Iranian militias and a corridor to the Syrian coast, where Russia has military bases. The HTS leader, al-Golani, recently stated his belief that the Assad regime is essentially defeated, despite support from Iran and Russia. Adding to Assad's woes, reports indicate that Iran has begun evacuating personnel from Syria.
The escalating conflict presents a complex challenge for the incoming U.S. administration, which has an opportunity to push for a political solution in Syria based on UN Resolution 2254. With approximately 900 U.S. troops already in Syria as part of the anti-ISIS coalition, the U.S. faces a delicate balancing act in navigating the complexities of the Syrian civil war.
